Are Whitetail Deer Overpopulated? [3 Studies Explained]


Between the roadkill and the backyard, it seems that whitetail deer are everywhere, especially here in the southeast. It seems like I see a group of deer every day, if not multiple times a day. Thousands of deer are hit on the roadways every day across the country, and I have come close to adding to that number quite a few times. While it may seem like whitetail deer are around every corner, they are not technically overpopulated. Although they could be very soon without some human intervention. 

Thanks to overhunting, the whitetail deer population was all but extinct in the late 1800s. Since conservation efforts were put in place in the early 1900s, their population has increased every year, and now their numbers are larger than ever. The increase in the whitetail population can be attributed to the decrease in hunting by humans, habitat improvement by local governments and hunters, the decrease in other natural predator populations, and the whitetail’s ability to survive in nearly any environment. 

Current & Past Whitetail Deer Population Numbers

It is hard to estimate population sizes of wild animals, and we will never get better than estimated guesses, however, I will use the estimated guesses of the experts nonetheless. All the data you see in this section is from a study published by the Wildlife Society Bulletin in 2020.

In the 1800s, whitetail deer were a significant part of trade and supply. Buckskin, leather, and other byproducts besides meat made up a hefty portion of the trade and market at the time. Even before settlers came to America, it’s estimated the numbers of whitetail deer ranged from 24 million to 62 million, averaging about 7 to 20 deer per square mile. 

Most of this population was probably east of the Mississippi River as well. With land settlement, new diseases, and varying predator populations, whitetail deer numbers may have dwindled to a staggering 12 to 14 million by 1800. Further decimation was expected as the great expansion into the West happened up until the early 1900s. By this time, the numbers may have hovered around the 500,000 mark. The early 1900s saw the whitetail deer as the beneficiary of responsible deer harvesting movements and hunting restrictions. By the 1980s, their numbers rebounded to about 30 million animals.

Whitetail deer have come and gone under hunting protection acts throughout history. Thanks to the Wildlife Society Bulletin study I cited earlier, we can see how their population reacted throughout most of the 1900s in the South Eastern United States. Below is a graph I constructed based on their population density data, which I think is a bit easier to grasp than giant population numbers.

This study looks into whitetail populations in the South Eastern United States, which is where a large majority of the deer population has lived since the dawn of their existence; as far as we know. While the study’s data stopped in 2003, it was published in 2020, and the authors stated in paragraph four on page 512 that “the southeastern United States now averages 8 or 9 deer per square kilometer.” Translated into screeching bald eagle units, that is 21 to 23 deer per square mile which is 640 acres.

What Caused Whitetail Deer Numbers to Increase So Much?

There are a few big factors that contribute to the exponential growth of whitetail deer over the last few decades. One being they can live just about anywhere, and with populations rising in the southeast, it’s not unreasonable to expect expansion westward and co-mingling with mule deer populations.

I’ve seen deer in the middle of college campuses, concrete-laden cities, and the typical farm field. They’re absolutely everywhere. They find a way to survive no matter where they are. Even when expanding into the West, they out-populate locally native mule deer easily.

Urbanization has actually aided in whitetail populations. Wherever people tend to live, other predators tend to avoid, or die as a result. According to a paper published by the USDA Forest Service, “major predators such as the gray wolf (Canis lupus) and cougar (Puma concolor) have been extirpated from much of the [whitetail] deer’s range.” Extirpated meaning completely removed, I had to look that one up…

We address predators like coyotes, cougars, and bears a lot quicker if they show up in our backyard compared to Bambi. So deer are usually safe to hang out in populated areas, and as long as they avoid the cars, they thrive.

In general, the destruction of their natural environment is not as detrimental to whitetail deer as it is to many other animals. There have also been plenty of conservation efforts over the past few decades to produce a healthy deer population across the country. Combine these two facts, and it is not surprising to see whitetail doing so well in the modern environment. 

Is Overpopulation Really That Bad?

Overpopulation doesn’t just mean more car accidents, garden intruders, or better hunting; it can mean absolute habitat devastation. Habitat and ecosystems only have so much to give to their populace. When habitat is being depleted or heavily burdened other native species are negatively affected. If left unchecked, these systems can effectively collapse because they all depend on each other.

In the same USDA Forest Service paper, there is a conversation about a parcel of trees in Long Island, and it is pointed out that the sapling trees are nearly nonexistent in the area and it is stated that “they have succumbed to the effects of chronic deer browsing.” It is later stated that “these same effects are repeated in many other forest types.”

There is another interesting quote in this paper that shows just how long this has been an issue in the area: “in Pennsylvania and many other parts of the Northeast, deer overabundance has changed our forests so much and for so long that we truly don’t know how our forests would look without too many deer.”

In short, deer eat A LOT. They can decimate forest foliage and trees. Although deer are not all evil, they are essential to the environment. One by-product of eating everything is that they aid in seedling germination. In the USDA Forest Service paper, it is stated that “In a Connecticut study, seedlings of 57 different plant species were germinated from deer pellets.”

One problem with them eating so much is damage to agricultural crops. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated that losses to field crops, vegetables, fruits, and nuts exceeded $765 million USD in 2001. There is no question that farmers are all for reducing deer numbers, especially in agriculturally dense areas of the country like the Midwest. 

Don’t get me wrong, too many deer can ruin a parcel of land. However, having a healthy population of deer is a good thing for the overall ecosystem. However, having too many deer also comes with other issues, the first being easier disease transmission. 

Whitetail Disease Transmission

Large numbers of deer clustered together leads to a greater risk of diseases spreading and reducing the overall herd’s health. They can unexpectedly take out large numbers of deer, or other animals in ways that we can’t control. We have seen this in other populations like the Bighorn Sheep, where a single bad disease can nearly wipe out the entire population. 

Some diseases keep to one species while others spread. Lately, there’s been a growing concern about the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD), epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD), brucellosis, and Lyme disease. CWD and EHD might keep relatively close to the deer species, but brucellosis is highly infectious to other ruminants like cattle, buffalo, and sheep. Lyme disease can speak for itself. Humans, dogs, horses, deer, and nearly anything else can contract Lyme disease just by being bitten by a tick.

If you want to see a bit more about these diseases and how they affect whitetail, check out this article I wrote about the most deadly whitetail deer diseases.

The Best Way to Control Whitetail Populations

Like it or not, hunting for sport is the single best tool we have to control wild whitetail deer populations. Every year, each state updates its regulations and guidelines to adjust how many deer hunters are allowed to take each year based on a number of conservation strategies. The majority of those harvests are reported, and each state can get a good idea of how many deer they removed each year. 

Hunting is a safe and regulated way to monitor, sustainably harvest, and aid in population control. Besides reducing population numbers, hunting also provides other benefits. For starters, hunting permits and permissions help fund habitat management programs, which are used to help a large variety of animals and ecosystems all over the country. 

The meat from hunting is used to feed millions of Americans and is sometimes donated to charities like Hunters for The Hungry, which provided 8.1 million meals to people in need last year. Plus, hunters are able to monitor disease spread, overall herd health, and numbers. This valuable information helps state officials log more detailed data and subsequently paint a better picture of what’s going on throughout the country with much more than just whitetail deer.

Even now, despite the rising numbers over the decades, the numbers we see would be considerably higher without hunting, and many more habitat areas would be in bad shape. Not to mention, hunting is a fantastic way to get people involved in the outdoors, and nowadays if you can do something to get someone off their phone and get them outside, that is a surprise. 

Reducing the whitetail population will be good for the habitat, but also for the deer that are left. A common deer management practice is to take out excess does, which often outnumber the bucks at least three to one (read more about buck-to-doe ratios in my other article here). This leaves more resources for the remaining does, and ideally, the bucks, which are what hunters are mainly focused on. This allows the smaller population of deer to have a more nutrient-dense diet, which makes them healthier. This leads to better antler growth in bucks, and increased birth success in does. 

Maintaining a Healthy Whitetail Deer Population

In many areas around the country, there is an overabundance of whitetail deer. This can have a devastating effect on local ecosystems, lead to an increase in car collisions, an increase in disease spread, and cause millions of dollars of extra damage to agricultural crops. 

Hunting is the most effective method we have to control the wild population of whitetails. Every year, millions of Americans volunteer to hunt, and even pay a fee to do so. In the process, they harvest around 6 million deer each year (according to the NDA). With a population of around 30 million, this sounds like a devastating amount, but each year their population only grows. 

This single fact shows that without hunting, the whitetail deer population would skyrocket out of control in only a few short years. This would lead to absolute habitat devastation and would kill many other animals that whitetail deer frequently outcompete for the few resources that would be left. 

In short, yes there are a lot of whitetail deer, but no they are not overpopulated around the country. Thanks to hunters, we can keep their population in check and also fund wildlife agencies that care for many more animals and ecosystems than just the whitetail deer. 


Thank you for reading my article! I hope you enjoyed it, and if you have any questions or feedback, please send me an email at Patrick.Long@omegaoutdoors.net. If you want to learn more about me or Omega Outdoors, visit my About Page. Otherwise, I hope you have a great day, and check out some of my other articles while you’re here!

Patrick Long

I am a college student, writer, and an avid outdoorsman in the great state of Georgia. I have been hunting for over 15 years, and writing for a few years now. If I am not studying for my next exam, I am probably in the deer stand or behind my keyboard writing my next article. If you would like to know more about me, visit my about page.

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